‘The fear was immense’: the militant group capitalizes on fragmented politics to retake territory in the Horn of Africa nation

During an evening in early July, Maryan Abdikadir Geedi resolved it was at last the moment to desert her modest store in the settlement of a Hiiraan region community.

Though she had heard of the quick progress made by al-Shabaab, the middle-aged woman had hoped to stay. Following her wedding over a decade ago, Geedi had witnessed control over Moqokori alternate between sides often.

“Just like how the rain comes and goes, so does control over Moqokori, but this time it was different,” Geedi remarked.

Following the start of their assault earlier this year, al-Shabaab has advanced across a swath of Somalia, taking back all the land it lost to a coalition of official troops and local allied fighters supported by aerial assistance from international partners in the previous year, and gaining further ground. During the summer, the conflict had reached within a short distance of the capital city. Some observers predicted the capital might fall.

“Terror was overwhelming. Word started spreading that the militants were advancing. Once the terror became unbearable, I decided to leave,” said Geedi, who made her way to the settlement of Buloburde, 90km away, with her spouse and children.

Lately, battle lines have settled, though government security forces are still on the back foot. Development is accelerating in Mogadishu, and few now believe the city will be seized by the militants.

Though the US has intensified airstrikes against the group and other militant groups in the region, Washington has signalled it will not redeploy the elite troops pulled out during the previous administration.

In lieu of this, nations such as the Republic of Turkey, the UAE and the East African nation have committed troops, training or air support over the past few years, while the AU force continues to field a large contingent. The Arab Republic of Egypt is now dispatching a large contingent too.

Lacking this assistance, official troops would be defeated, analysts say.

“The situation is a deadlock,” said Samira Gaid. “The militants are not focused on taking the capital. They control a lot of minor settlements under their authority and the majority of the countryside. We have been stuck here for a while … and we will be stuck with it for as long as the administration has the advantage provided by foreign troops.”

The success of the militant campaign has dealt a significant blow to the morale of fragmented military units and the administration of the national leader, who pledged “total war” against the militants after taking power in 2022.

“Twenty of my comrades have died and have been injured on two occasions,” said one 42-year-old Somalia National Army veteran in the city of Beledweyne.

“I have seen combat in Beera Yabaal, Aboorey, Yasooman, Mabaax, Ceel Qooxle, Adan Yabaal, Masjid Cali Gaduud and Daaru Nicma. Afterward, each of these places have been retaken by the militants,” he said. “The insurgents believe if they die, heaven awaits them, while the majority of troops … want to collect their meagre salaries and return to their families.”

The serviceman said he was alarmed by the swift progress made by al-Shabaab in recent months but worries the situation will deteriorate if no action is taken now to halt the insurgent progress.

“Now the fighters are in a position where they can move fighters and supplies nationwide as result of seizing strategic towns in Hiiraan. This puts numerous other locations in the southern and central parts of the country at risk of falling. Their progress is rapid,” he said.

Experts point to the administration’s fragility as the key factor of the militants’ recent success.

“The conditions with the militants on the ground is always influenced by the overall governance and safety context and that is quite bad at the moment,” said an east Africa specialist.

“Exist significant fractures in the nation and these make it extremely challenging for federal government, its military and foreign troops to coordinate counter terrorist efforts. The group are taking advantage of a highly divided political landscape at this time.”

Further funding for the $160m a year African Union force in Somalia is also uncertain, which “affects operations,” Soliman said.

A few weeks following the capture of the town, the militants seized the key settlement of a vital location, which sent shock waves throughout the nation.

“As time went on increasing numbers evacuated. Houses were deserted, stores and markets became vacant,” said Nimo Abdi Barre.

Accompanied by her spouse and children, Nimo traveled to the outskirts of the settlement, where they managed to catch a ride on a vehicle heading towards the urban center of the provincial capital – the main city of Hirshabelle province.

“My kids where vomiting and screaming. This was made worse by fears of IEDs and landmines on the route. My faith in God is what helped me endure,” she said.

She has remained in the city, which the government have managed to hold.

“My loved ones are with me but at the same time nothing is worse then feeling like a refugee on your native land,” she said. “I want to return home but it remains to be seen if I will have the opportunity.”